Trump Promises His Venezuela Oil Deal Will Lower Gas Prices. But When?

“That may slow down oil companies from wanting to invest in Venezuela,” he explains.

And financing is only one hurdle; the physical work required also shapes the timeline.

“Drilling and pumping that oil will take a very long time. Changes to fuel prices won’t happen overnight or even in months,” De Haan says, adding that global refining capacity is currently constrained, further limiting the speed at which additional crude supply could affect the market.

Galimberti says that consumers should expect a long road between the initial investment and the ultimate production and distribution of oil. 

“You will need to factor in several quarters and, in quite a few cases, years,” he says. “Therefore, it is a deal whose benefits will be seen mostly in the medium-long term.”

“To lower gasoline and diesel prices in the short term, the most effective way by far is by increasing the flows from the Middle East,” Galimberti says. He points to recent successes in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, including pipelines and ports being developed across the Gulf.