‘Really Alarming for Some Republicans in Competitive Seats’

The midterms are just two months away, and Republicans are growing more nervous.

Polls show President Donald Trump is deeply unpopular with voters, and the battle for control of Congress continues to stretch into redder and redder territory.

Democrats are feeling confident about their chances of retaking the House even as the GOP successfully redrew more seats to their advantage in the past year’s controversial mid-decade redistricting fight.. The Senate, once seen as a longshot for Democrats, now appears in striking distance. And both parties are investing major resources in states and districts where Trump won by double digits in 2024.

Labor Day is now upon us, which marks the traditional start of the general election campaign. And while some states are already sending ballots to voters, a lot can still happen between now and Election Day. To get a sense of where things stand at this moment, I talked to some of POLITICO’s sharpest reporters — Andrew Howard and Meredith Lee Hill on the campaign team, Alex Gangitano on the White House team, and Jordain Carney from the Congress team.

In a wide-ranging conversation, we discussed what surprised them from a tumultuous primary season, how Republicans could still stave off a Democratic wave, and what to keep an eye on as the campaign heads into the home stretch.

This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

I want to start a bit broadly, and this question is for everyone. With the primary season just about over, what are the main takeaways for both Democrats and Republicans? What have these results taught us about the parties’ trajectories going forward?

Andrew and Jordain, do you want to take first crack at the Democrats? And Alex and Meredith, I’d love to get your thoughts on the GOP.

Andrew Howard: For Democrats, primary season has been a rollercoaster defined, mostly, by one thing: the need for change. After across-the-board losses in 2024, the party still lacks a clear leader and direction, and its voters are fed up. Progressives have made serious inroads, winning in key battleground primaries like the Michigan Senate race. But it hasn’t always been a clear ideological split. For example, Rep. John Larson, a 14-term incumbent, was ousted by a more-moderate but far-younger challenger.

Alex Gangitano: President Trump has made it hard for Republicans to run this cycle — they have to answer to voters about his war in Iran and high gas prices and instability in the economy. Going into 2028, that’s going to be even harder for Republicans running for president or on the ballot in House and Senate races, because who is left holding the bag when Trump’s term is over?

Meredith Lee Hill: For Republicans, Trump was incredibly eager to show his power in the primary season, even ousting some of his political rivals in moves that have come back to haunt him and the Senate GOP somewhat. But talking to Republicans who were out campaigning in August, they seem deeply confused about what message the party is trying to push from Trump on down — as voters are raising concerns about cost of living, the Iran war and other topics.

Just in the past few days, Trump hammered farm district Republicans with a plan to import more foreign beef, more tariffs and now talk about pushing data centers, which will involve rural areas, and inflaming ethanol supporters in a long-running fight with Big Oil. It’s a lot for them to take in and doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Jordain Carney: For Senate Democrats, they’ve seen a number of races where more establishment candidates and progressives are grappling with and debating the question of who is “electable” — and that is a conversation that is going to continue into November and internal caucus conversations after the midterms and 2028.

Progressives have won some of the primaries so far, but you’ve also got more establishment candidates — Roy Cooper, Mary Peltola, Josh Turek, etc. — in some major battleground states. And now Democrats are still trying to put the infighting behind them in Michigan, which is a seat they are trying to hold and Republicans feel like they could flip.

Alex and Andrew, since you touched on this a bit already, I’ll throw this one to you two.

We’re seeing a ton of red states and districts where Trump won by double digits where both parties are heavily investing resources. How big a wave do you think this is going to be for Democrats right now, and what key indicators are you watching to recalibrate that assumption as Election Day draws nearer?

Gangitano: At this point, the low propensity voters who helped Trump win the White House in 2024 are going to decide how much Republicans can fend off a Democratic wave in 2024. If ads about Trump’s accomplishments, his super PAC spending big on candidates, a midterm convention speech and Trump hitting the trail more regularly can energize those voters — who typically only vote when Trump is on the ballot — Republicans can get a boost. But if the MAGA coalition has been chipped away because of Iran, importing foreign beef and other issues, and Trump can’t get those voters to the polls, Democrats could be seeing a big wave in their favor.

Howard: Democrats are not being shy about going deep into Trump country to win — the DCCC has almost 60 House seats on its target list — but they will likely have to pare that down before November.

Part of the reason they are going so far into red territory is because of how much the map has changed since 2018. Republicans kicked off a fresh wave of redistricting last year that could net the party as many as 10 House seats, something that could limit their ability to pull off a wave.

Another big factor: money. Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., has hardly spent anything so far despite sitting on more than $400 million. Money can’t fix all of the GOP’s problems, but it could help prevent a tsunami from Democrats.

Andrew, I was going to ask you about that. Republicans have a clear money advantage at the party committee level — especially with the RNC’s towering cash advantage over the DNC. How much do you think that’ll make a difference in the midterms?

And Alex, as Andrew mentioned, MAGA Inc. is sitting on over $400 million. The big question every Republican campaign we’re talking to is asking: Will they spend it, and where? I’m wondering more about motivation — how and why do you think they’re going to spend their money? Is the primary goal keeping congressional control, boosting Trump’s image, or what?

Howard: There are so many headwinds for Republicans right now, so this is a tricky question. I think if we see gas prices drop and the war in Iran end, Republicans could mount a significant comeback in part because of their finances.

But like I said before, money can’t fix everything. Think of somewhere like Texas, where Democrat James Talarico is making a strong run at the embattled Republican Ken Paxton. Texas is huge and expensive. It’s possible Republicans could sink much of their cash advantage into that race alone.

Gangitano: It’s September and MAGA Inc. has only spent on Darline Graham in South Carolina, so that may be an indicator that there won’t be a big, significant chunk of the $400 million actually spent this cycle. Many voters make up their mind by Labor Day, so MAGA Inc. may be playing catch up if they don’t spend until after that. Any money left over will be looked at as to boost Trump’s image.

Paxton’s race in Texas is the main place that Republicans want to see Trump’s war chest spend, so they can spend other resources in states like Ohio and North Carolina and not drain cash in Texas, which is huge and expensive.

Andrew and Alex have both mentioned Texas as a big potential money sink for Trump and the GOP. It’s also drawn outsized attention this cycle.

But Jordain and Meredith, if you each had to pick one Senate race whose results would tell you which party controls the upper chamber, which would that be and why?

Lee Hill: Ohio is such a huge question right now for Republicans — if Sen. Jon Husted can keep it red amid all the challenges they’re facing. If Republicans can’t hold on there, it’s going to be a larger wave. And if Democrats can hold onto Michigan — one of the biggest fights.

Carney: I’m going to say Michigan. Democrats have expanded the number of GOP states they are playing in, but they also need to hold onto all of their own current seats or that path to netting the four seats they need gets harder. And if Republicans are able to flip Michigan, it makes keeping the Senate majority easier.

I wouldn’t want to be trying to buy ad time on the Big Ten Network this fall.

Carney: SEC football is the only thing that matters.

Andrew and Meredith, I’ll pose a similar question to you: On the House side, what Democratic flip do you think would indicate Democrats are having a huge night? And what GOP hold would tell you that Republicans have a real chance at holding the majority?

Howard: Some of Democrats’ longest-shot House targets were spoiled by controversial incumbent Republicans like Cory Mills and Andy Ogles losing their primaries.

But if Chaz Molder, the Democratic mayor of Columbia, Tennessee, wins on Election Day in a district that Trump won by more than 20 points, it’ll be a clear sign that Democrats are having a huge night. Similarly, I’ll have my eyes on the redrawn Texas districts. If the Tejano music star Bobby Pulido beats GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz, it’ll be a great night for Democrats.

On the Republican side, I think if they hold any of the three seats they control that were won by Kamala Harris, that’ll be a great sign. Especially the open Nebraska seat currently held by Rep. Don Bacon, who chose not to run for reelection. If Republicans can carry the blue dot, they have a chance.

Lee Hill: Republicans earlier this year were really optimistic they only needed to focus on a limited number of battleground seats this fall, but even a lot of senior Republicans admit the Iran war, high gas prices and other problems have expanded where they need to be playing defense, and spending, to defend their seats. We saw some new urgency from GOP leaders recently when we scooped Speaker Mike Johnson was planning to meet in Texas with megadonor Elon Musk — who Republicans think is weighing spending for House Republicans in key battleground districts.

Andrew, data centers have clearly become a surprisingly big issue on the campaign trail — and not breaking down cleanly along traditional partisan lines. How big a deal do you think they will be for the fight for Congress on Election Day, or are these going to matter most for governor’s races where the governor has direct power over development?

Howard: At the end of the day, the cost of living is going to be the defining issue of the midterms.

But data centers have rapidly become a part of that conversation, and candidates are doing their best to tie the hubs to energy prices. I think they will still have the biggest influence in governor’s races this year, but come 2028 every candidate for every office will have to have an answer on this issue that satisfies voters.

Lee Hill: Agree. In battleground states like Michigan, Republicans have staked out positions pushing back on data centers at least in the short-term based on what they’re hearing from voters across the political spectrum. Republicans involved in races there say the issue is basically so toxic and development is further along than in other states that they just can’t stick with Trump when he says communities need to embrace data centers or risk being “backwards and poor.”

Alex, what do you make of the fact that Trump keeps touting data centers even as many candidates in his party, as well as Democrats, are attacking them?

Gangitano: Trump doubling down on data centers is him taking the bet that Americans will come around to them. He looks at data centers as a sign of economic growth — which he’s struggled to create in other industries — and as a way to compete with China.

Vice President JD Vance said on Monday that companies building data centers have to put power back into the grid and not lead to higher utility bills, acknowledging Americans’ concerns on them. But Trump is married to data centers at this point, so he opts instead to brush off concerns and insist that they can lead to jobs and growth.

Jordain, how much of the midterms hinge on whether Trump can get his approval rating out of the 30s in the next couple months, and is that possible or is the cake baked at this point? Do Republicans need the Iran war and higher gas prices to go away? Something else?

Carney: Republicans would love higher gas prices to go away and had hoped that the Iran conflict wouldn’t drag into the fall in part because of its impact on energy and gas prices.

They know they need to convince voters that they — and Trump — hear their concerns and have an answer to their concerns on affordability and cost of living. Part of that is out of their control. We talked to GOP senators who wanted to spend August talking about affordability and then Trump really complicated that with his latest battle with Canada over tariffs.

There is a concern among some Republicans that they are getting to the point where how voters view the GOP on affordability, and their concerns about the economy, are getting baked. And they are battling for voters in this space against Democrats, who have spent months making the central theme of their midterms argument that Republicans and Trump are making costs higher.

For Meredith and Jordain, what do you think Senate and House GOP leaders are thinking when it comes to Trump and the midterms?

Lee Hill: There’s been a lot of talk in GOP circles on Capitol Hill that they need to turn out MAGA voters without Trump on the ballot and that’s the top concern in the midterms. But a lot of battleground Republicans have told us they’re deeply worried about the other slice of Republicans in the weeks ahead — more traditional Republicans and even independents who are turned off by some of these mounting challenges they’re facing on affordability and more.

House GOP leaders know they can’t break from Trump and need him engaged, but the idea that this will be a referendum on Trump — highlighted by the GOP convention later this month — is really alarming for some Republicans in competitive seats who do not want that to be the focus.

Carney: We’ve seen Senate GOP leaders much more openly call for Trump and other corners of the party to stop training their fire on Republicans over the SAVE Act and other issues and start focusing more on Democrats heading into November. It’s an open question if Trump will do that, but after months of infighting, Republicans want Trump and the party writ large playing team ball and on message in the final stretch.

OK, two questions for the group to wrap up.

What’s been your biggest surprise this cycle, either in terms of a nationwide event or trend or a specific race that’s emerged?

And what is the biggest outstanding question in your mind for what might shape the ultimate election outcome?

Gangitano: The biggest surprise from the president is when he said he doesn’t care about the midterms, while explaining that he’s in no rush to end the war with Iran. It was a fascinating decision to admit that he’s uninterested in the midterms while Republicans are struggling to talk to voters about the war and growing more frustrated with the back and forth between striking Iran and negotiating peace deals.

The biggest question is how much of his war chest will actually be spent to help Republicans. Will he spend at least $100 million of the $400 million in MAGA Inc. funding so he can he flood the airwaves in Texas? Can he make a huge impact to help Republicans in Michigan and Ohio? Or will he hold onto the money, ignoring Republican calls for him to spend it.

Carney: Senate Republicans also, as we noted earlier, really want to see Trump-world spend money to help Paxton in Texas, in the you-broke-it-you-bought-it frame of mind.

Lee Hill: Speaker Mike Johnson, NRCC Chair Richard Hudson and other top House Republicans basically every few days now acknowledge that it would be better if the war in Iran would end before the midterms — while continuing to back Trump and his push to keep Iran from a nuclear weapon.

Howard: I alluded to this earlier, but the norm-breaking race to redistrict before the midterms has to be the biggest surprise. It was also the earliest indicator that some Republicans were ready to move on from Trump — but voters were not. Indiana Republicans bucked Trump and the White House when they refused to redistrict in 2025, only to fall in primaries to MAGA-aligned candidates.

My biggest question is how much Trump himself hits the trail. He’s said recently that he wants Republicans to pretend he’s on the ballot. But to really sell that argument, he has to bring that pitch everywhere. Time will tell.

Lee Hill: Yes, how far Trump wades into the battleground races will be key — both on his presence and if he unleashes more MAGA Inc. money. Republicans expect him in districts like WI-03 for Rep. Derrick Van Orden, but does he go to any more vulnerable GOP districts? We’ve heard from some Republicans who don’t want him to come at all.

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